Friday is here! Good morning to you all, I hope you’ve enjoyed a shorter week at work with you lucky sods having Monday off. I’m here to bring you something that we haven’t done before on this site. Permutations, permutations, permutations. Permutations of the Jordanian top flight to be precise. Our main focus will be at the foot of the table where one of Mansheyat Bani Hasan, Shabab Al-Aqaba or Al-Baqa’a will be relegated. 

Neck On The Line – GD Will Decide Over H2H

At the upper-echelons of the league, Al-Wehdat won the league last week! That isn’t to say that second-placed has been confirmed. It is there where we’ll begin. According to my sources, the Jordanian league is sorted on goal difference as opposed to H2H. I’m quite cautious about things like this as I know Asian football is rather notorious for a random tiebreaker. But, yeah, we’re working with goal difference.

As mentioned, Al-Wehdat have got nothing to worry about. Going into the final day, they’re nine points ahead of Al-Jazeera and Al-Faisaly who are in the middle of AFC Cup knockout game with one another. There was nothing to separate the two sides last Monday in the Cup and there’s nothing to separate them in the league, either.

In the preview for the AFC Cup between the pair, I noted that they both played at the same stadium. As the story goes, they can’t because they’re both at home later today. They also both kick-off at the same time. I’ve double checked and it definitely says that they do on a few sites, elsewhere it says something else and I guess that on this occasion, elsewhere are right.

Al-Jazeera Have A Slight Advantage

Al-Jazeera’s goal difference outweighs Al-Faisaly’s by two which means that if both sides win, Al-Faisaly need to score a boatload. I’m not convinced they’ll both win. Al-Jazeera are facing the champions, Al-Wehdat which is no easy task. Will they take it easy now that the title is done and dusted? I’m not so sure. If Al-Jazeera win by two and Al-Faisaly win by four, Al-Jazeera will take second by virtue of a higher number of goals scored.

Here’s where the fun kicks in. If Al-Jazeera win 1-0 and Al-Faisaly win 4-2, I have no idea what will happen. That’ll mean that both sides will have exactly the same number of points, exactly the same goal difference and exactly the same number of goals scored. Coin toss anyone?

For what it’s worth, Al-Faisaly are hosting Shabab Al-Aqaba and we’ll come on to them shortly. So what you need to remember in the race for second is this:

  • If Al-Jazeera win and Al-Faisaly draw or lose, Al-Jazeera will finish second. And vice-versa.
  • If Al-Jazeera & Al-Faisaly both win, it boils down to the goals.
  • If Al-Jazeera & Al-Faisaly both lose, it boils down to who concedes what.
  • If Al-Jazeera & Al-Faisaly both draw, Al-Jazeera will finish second by virtue of a better GD.
  • If Al-Jazeera draw & Al-Faisaly lose, Al-Jazeera will finish second. And vice-versa.

There might well be some that I’ve missed, but you get the gist, don’t you? Good. Now for the opposite end of the table. Al-Yarmouk‘s fate was sealed last week when they lost to Al-Wehdat. One spot. Three candidates. Who fills it? Let’s find out. 

Mansheyat Bani Hasan MUST Win

Starting from 11th (there are twelve teams in the league) placed Mansheyat Bani Hasan, we’ll work our way up. To put it simply, they need to win to stand a chance of stopping in the division and even then it might not be enough. Incidentally, they can stay up with a draw if Shabab Al-Aqaba lose to Al-Faisaly 8-0. Considering Al-Faisaly might need goals, that could happen. Ha. Pigs could also fly.

Mansheyat Bani Hasan’s task is the ‘easiest’ of the trio involved as they’re away at 8th placed Al-Hussein who have nothing to play for whatsoever after their win last week. Perhaps they’re already on the beach.  

So, point number one is: Mansheyat Bani Hasan have to win & results have to go their way to stay up. A draw or a loss would send them down.

Moving onto Shabab Al-Aqaba. They won’t lose to Al-Faisaly 8-0. If it happens, I’ll eat my hat. There, it’s on the record now. To be 100% sure of survival, all they need to do is win. Easier said than done.

Shabab Al-Aqaba’s Fate Is In Their Own Hands

Either way, here is what Shabab Al-Aqaba’s permutations look like:

  • If Shabab Al-Aqaba win, they are safe.
  • If Shabab Al-Aqaba draw and Al-Baqa’a (more on them shortly) fail to win, they are safe.
  • If Shabab Al-Aqaba lose and Mansheyat Bani Hasan win, they are down.

It’s in their hands. What more can you ask for?

Lastly, we’ll have a mooch over the aforementioned Al-Baqa’a. They sit two points above the drop zone which means if they win away at That Ras, they’re safe. If they draw and both Mansheyat Bani Hasan and Shabab Al-Aqaba win, that’s when things get really interesting.

Should Al Baqa’a Draw, Things Could Get Interesting

Shabab Al-Aqaba will be safe on twenty-two points in this scenario, however, it will put both Mansheyat Bani Hasan and Al-Baqa’a on twenty-one points. Al-Baqa’a’s GD currently sits at -13 & Mansheyat Bani Hasan is -15 and because Mansheyat Bani Hasan have scored more goals, if they were to win by two clear goals, they would stay up.

Here is what can happen regarding Al-Baqa’a:

  • If Al-Baqa’a win, they’re safe.
  • If Al-Baqa’a draw & either of the two fail to win, they’re safe.
  • If Al-Baqa’a lose, Shabab Al-Aqaba will be safe with a draw. Mansheyat Bani Hasan still have to win.
  • If Al-Baqa’a draw & the other two win, it all hinges on how many goals Mansheyat Bani Hasan win by.

That should have cleared it all up for you. Clear as mud if you ask me. All the games that matter kick-off at 14:30 BST, so be sure to keep an eye for the Jordanian Jimmy Glass!

Until the next time.